Districts, State and the Wild Card Points System in Nebraska

Question:  How does a team get to the State Tournament?

Short Answer:  One win at a time.

Long Answer:  See below.

Winning a state championship represents the highest team achievement in high school sports and has very special meaning for the coaches and players involved.  Therefore, considerable effort is expended by schools, athletic directors, coaches, players and families of players to achieve this lofty goal.  At the same time, similar effort is expended by the private organization that runs high school athletic activities in Nebraska, the Nebraska State Activities Association, to ensure that every participating team has an equal opportunity to realize its dream of a state championship.

In baseball, as in other sports, teams reach the state tournament in one of two ways:  (1) by winning a district tournament or (2) by qualifying as a Wild Card Team (more on this later).  In order to ensure that for each of these two pathways to the state tournament operates in a fair and equitable manner, thereby allowing the most deserving teams to advance to the state tournament, a fairly complicated system has been devised.  The purpose of this article is to examine the role of the NSAA Wild Card System in administering post-season tournament play in Nebraska. 

In order to understand how things work, it is helpful to know a few background facts:

• There are 44 high schools participating in Nebraska State Activities Association-sanctioned 2008 spring baseball season.  These 42 programs actually represent a total of 56 high schools as 12 schools participate via a cooperative arrangement with a sponsoring school, for example, Omaha Brownell-Talbot co-ops with Omaha Roncalli.

• Prior to the 2007-2008 season, there were 39 high school programs that all competed in a single class, Class A, regardless of the school's enrollment.  According to an NSAA rule that was adopted a few years ago, beginning with the 2007-2008 season, if there were 42 or more schools fielding baseball programs, the teams were to be divided into two classes.

• With the decision of Crete, Norris and South Sioux City in 2007 to add baseball for the 2008 season, the threshold of 42 baseball programs was met.  In the summer of 2007, the NSAA divided the 42 programs for 2008 into two classes, placing the largest 26 programs in Class A and the remaining 16 in Class B.  For purposes of classifying schools into Class A or B, the total enrollment of the sponsoring school and the co-op schools are added together.  See 2008 Baseball Classifications.

• At the same meeting at which the 42 programs were divided into Classes A and B, the NSAA also established that there would be six district tournaments in Class A and four in Class B.  The winners of the six district tournaments in Class A plus two “wild card teams” would make up the eight-team Class A state tournament field.  Since Class B had only sixteen teams at that time, it was decided that there would be four districts of four teams each.  The four district tournament winners plus four wild card teams made up the Class B state tournament field in 2008.

The manner by which teams are assigned to districts changed dramatically in April 2007.  Previously, for baseball, teams were assigned to districts in February before the season started, based on enrollment.  As the largest school participating in baseball (including the enrollment of its co-op teams), Grand Island was assigned to District 1, the next largest school was assigned to District 2, the third largest school was assigned to District 3, and so on.  When each of the six districts had one team assigned to it, the process repeated with the seventh largest school going to District 1, the eighth to District 2, and so on until all 39 teams were assigned to a district, resulting in 7 teams in Districts 1, 2 and 3 and 6 teams in District 4, 5 and 6 as illustrated in the following chart:

The concept behind assigning teams to districts on the basis of enrollment was that it would spread the “larger” schools evenly across the six districts, thereby creating equitable competition across the six district tournaments.  Of course, this concept is based on the questionable premise that “quantity = quality,” or that “bigger is better.”  There are many smaller schools that have top notch baseball programs.  For example, the 2007 state champion Elkhorn Antlers were the 28^th largest of the 39 teams that year.  Conversely, some larger schools are not historically strong in baseball.

As a result of assigning teams on the basis of enrollment (a non-qualitative criteria), it often fell to chance whether a particular district had a disproportionate number of very good teams, thereby creating “uneven” competition.  Thus, if several very good teams were concentrated into one district, it would create a situation where very deserving teams were eliminated in that district whereas, in other districts the competition might not be as tough, and a lesser team would go to state from that district.  To mitigate the inequalities caused by “uneven” districts, a system was adopted that allowed a “Wild Card” team to qualify for the state tournament.  A Wild Card team was intended to be a very good team that did not win its district tournament.  In recent years, the eight-team Class A tournament field has been made up of the six district tournament winners, plus the two Wild Card teams – the two “best” teams that did not win their districts.

This seems fair enough, but then the question becomes “how are we going to decide which two of the teams that did not win their district should get the special honor of getting to go to the state tournament as a wild card team?”  One answer would be to look at the win-loss records of the non-district winners.  One might think that the two teams with the best win-loss record (i.e., highest winning percentage) should be the best teams.  However, comparison of teams on the basis of their winning percentage only makes sense if they have played exactly the same opponents, such as in a league.  However, in Nebraska high school baseball, teams do not play the same opponents.  Instead, each has a unique mix of opponents.  Therefore, there needs to be a way to “adjust” a team’s winning percentage to take into account the quality of the opposition that they played, also known as "strength of schedule". 

To come up with an equitable means of comparing teams using both winning percentage and strength of schedule, the current NSAA Wild Card Points system was created.  The overall goal of the system is to determine which two teams that did not win their districts deserve to go to the state tournament because of their performance throughout the season.  The Wild Card Points system accomplishes this numerically by awarding a varying number of points to a team for each game that it plays.  The number of points awarded to a team for each game is based on two factors:  (1) whether that team won or lost the game, and (2) the relative quality of its opponent based on the opponent's winning percentage in NSAA-sanctioned games.  The number of Wild Card Points earned by a team for each game played is cumulated over the season and is divided by the total number of games played to determine a team’s “Wild Card Points Average” (WCP Average).  Thus, a team that plays 18 games during the season can be numerically compared against one that plays 25 games, since its not the total number of points earned over the season that counts, but rather the average earned per game that is used for ranking purposes.

Rather than giving a unique qualitative ranking to every opponent, an opponent is placed into one of into four categories or divisions based on its win-loss percentage: First Division (D1), Second Division (D2), Third Division (D3) and Fourth Division (D4). A First Division team is one that has won 75% or more of its games; a Second Division team is one that has won 50% or more of its games but less than 75%; a Third Division Team is one that has won more 25% or more of its games but less than 50%, and a Fourth Division Team is one that has won less than 25% of its games.  Whether your opponent is a D1, D2, D3 or D4 team determines the number of points that your team receives from the game – win or lose – as illustrated in the following table: 

As you can see from the table, a team always gets more points for winning than for losing, regardless of the quality of the opponent.  And, a victory over or a loss to a better opponent is worth more points than the same outcome against a lesser opponent.  In this manner the earning and accumulation of Wild Card Points combines two qualitative factors:  (1) whether your team is winning games, and (2) how good your competition is.  Defeating a D1 team is worth 50 points, losing to a D4 Team is worth only 30 points.  Obviously, to be successful in the Wild Card system, you can’t sandbag and play only lesser quality teams; wins earned against those teams aren’t worth as much, and a loss to such a team could really hurt you.

One can readily see, then, that a team’s WCP Average will fluctuate during the season as it wins and loses games.  If your team beats a D1 opponent, your WCP Average takes a bump up.  Conversely, if you lose the next day to a D2 opponent, your WCP Average will drop (assuming that your WCP Average was higher than 36 at the time of the game).  A team’s WCP Average is a fluid number that moves up and down throughout the season as your team plays out its schedule.

However, just as important as the effect that YOUR TEAM’s wins and losses has on your WCP Average is the effect that your OPPONENTS’ wins and losses have on your WCP Average.  We saw from the chart above that the number of points that you get for a particular game depends on the win-loss percentage of your opponent, i.e., whether they are a D1, D2, D3 or D4 team.  What many people do not realize about the WCP system is that as each of your opponent plays out its schedule, the number of points that your team earns from its game(s) against that opponent will continue to fluctuate as that team wins and loses and moves from one division to another. 

Here’s an example that will help illustrate this concept:  let’s say that one of your opponents, for example, Elkhorn, currently has a win percentage equal to or greater than .750.  That means that Elkhorn is a D1 team, and a win today over Elkhorn would earn your team 50 points. But, if, over the course of the next few days, Elkhorn suffered a few losses that drops their win percentage below .750, then Elkhorn would become a D2 team, and the 50 points that you earned for your win over Elkhorn would drop to 47.  Similarly, if Elkhorn gets back on track, wins more games and goes back up to Division 1, your 47 points would go back up to 50 points. In other words, the points earned for a particular game is a dynamic number that will fluctuate throughout the season. 

The main point to remember is that the points you earn from a particular contest are not “locked in” based on your opponent’s record as of the day you played them.  Instead, the number of points you get from that game will move up and down as your opponent continues to play throughout the season.  That’s why a team’s WCP Average will move around even when it isn’t playing any games at all.  That movement is the result of opponents winning and losing games and moving from one division to another.  Each time an opponent moves into a different division as a result of wins or losses (e.g., from D2 to D1), it will cause a change in your WCP Average.  Of course, most of the time, your WCP Average is moving as a result of two factors:  (1) the results of the games you’re playing, and (2) the results of games that your opponents are playing.

The WCP Average for every team is calculated daily by the NSAA, based on the previous days’ game results.  Every team in Class A and Class B is then ranked in descending order by its WCP Average and the result is published each day.  Here’s an example of that ranking.  Also, you can look at NSAA’s detailed record of each team’s WCP calculation by going to this page and selecting that team from the drop-down menu.  (If you're reading this article during the off-season, these links may take you to a page that has not data reported.  If that is the case, check back during the season.)

The two teams in Class A and the four teams in Class B that (a) did not win their District Tournament and (b) have the highest WCP Average in their respective class, calculated on all games played through the end of District Tournaments, will be awarded the Wild Card berths in the State Tournament.  The eight-team field in each State Tournament is then seeded according to the WCP Average of each participating team.  Thus, it is possible that a Wild Card Team could be the #1 seed in the state tournament, despite not winning its District Tournament. 

Not only are WCP Averages used to select the Wild Card Teams that qualify for the State Tournaments and to seed the eight teams in each tournament into brackets, WCP Averages are also used to seed the District Tournament brackets, and beginning in 2008, are also used to assign teams to a district tournament.  That brings us back to the topic of how the assignment of teams to district tournaments changed in 2007.

As we discussed previously, teams were formerly assigned to districts before the season started based on enrollment, and sometimes the districts were “uneven” because the criteria used to supposedly distribute the best teams across the districts didn’t really have much at all to do with quality.  This resulted in good teams being left out of the state tournament, and to help deal with that problem the two Wild Card Team slots, and a method for fairly determining who should get those slots, was devised.

That was what the world looked like for the past several years.  However, as this high stakes drama played out every season, not only in baseball, but also in basketball, volleyball, soccer and softball, the inequities of the enrollment-based system continued to raise concerns about the fairness of the system.  Sure, having two Wild Card teams helped, but sometimes there were more than two deserving teams that needed to be saved from the system.  The criticism of enrollment-based district assignments finally led to a reform of the system.

In April 2007, the NSAA adopted a new district assignment system which went into effect in 2008.  The system that was adopted uses qualitative criteria, the WCP Average, to assign teams to districts.  Rather than assigning teams to districts using enrollment figures in February before any games are played, teams are now assigned to districts 10 days prior to the start of district tournament play -- a date by which most of the games have been played and the relative quality of the teams has been established.  

The method now used to assign teams to district tournaments is as follows:

1.  On a date within two weeks prior to the first district tournament game (for administrative reasons, NSAA has chosen 10 days prior  -- which we shall call the District Assignment / Seeding Date), the teams in each class are ranked in descending order (1 through 26 for Class A and 1 through 18 in Class B) based on each team’s Wild Card Point Average for all games played through that date. 

2.  The teams, thus ranked in descending order, are then assigned to districts using a “serpentine” method in which the “loading” of teams into horizontal rows alternates or “snakes” back and forth in opposite directions – first right to left, then left to right, then right to left and so on.

In Class A the serpentine method of loading the 26 teams into the 6 districts looks like this:

As shown above, Class A has six district tournaments – two with five teams each, and four with four teams each.  Class B will have four district tournaments, two with five teams each and two with four teams each.  The District Tournaments are single elimination, which means one loss and your season is over, unless your WCP Average is high enough that your team can still qualify for the State Tournament as a Wild Card Team despite losing in your district tournament.  The eight-team Class A state tournament field consists of the six district tournament winners and two Wild Card Teams.  The eight-team Class B state tournament consists of the four district tournament winners and four Wild Card Teams.

As noted earlier, WCP Averages are used to seed both the district tournaments and the state tournament.  For example, in a four-team district tournament, the four teams assigned to that district will be ranked 1 – 4 based on their WCP Average for all games played through the District Assignment / Seeding Date.  In the opening round, the #1 team will play #4, and #2 will play #3.  The winners of those two games will play for the district championship for the right to go to the state tournament. 

Each double elimination eight-team state tournament field is seeded based on the WCP Average of the eight teams for all games played through the end of district tournaments, May 6.  After ranking the eight teams 1 through 8 based on this WCP Average, the teams are paired as follows for first round competition:  1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6, and 4 vs. 5.

To summarize, the Wild Card Point Average is used for four purposes in Nebraska high school baseball:

1.  To assign teams to districts (using WCP Average for all games played prior to the District Assignment / Seeding Date);

2.  To seed district tournaments (using WCP Average for all games played prior the District Assignment / Seeding Date);

3.  To determine the Wild Card Teams that will participate in the Class A and Class B state tournaments (using WCP Average for all games played through the end of district tournaments); and

4.  To seed state tournaments (using WCP Average for all games played through the end of district tournaments).

The phrase “all games played” includes games played by out-of-state opponents from states contiguous to Nebraska.  By way of illustration, if Beatrice plays Marysville, KS on March 20, Marysville win-loss record from games played by Marysville against any opponent through April 22 will impact the Nebraska Wild Card Points system for purposes 1 and 2 above.  And, to determine if Beatrice qualifies for the Class B state tournament as a Wild Card Team, or where Beatrice should be seeded in the eight-team Class B state tournament if it is a Wild Card Team or District winner, Marysville’s win-loss record for all of its games played through the end of district tournaments would be considered. 

Although the Wild Card System may seem a bit technical to some, the NSAA should receive credit for innovating, and committing resources to administering, a system that allows each team a fair and equitable opportunity to reach its dream of competing for the state championship.

2009 District Tournament  Dates:  May 9 - 11 - 12

2009 State Tournament Dates:  May 16 - 18 - 19 - 20 - 21

Sources:

1.  NSAA Baseball Manual

2.  Discussions with Jim Angele, NSAA Assistant Director in charge of Baseball

Copyright 2008 Baseball Nebraska, Inc.  This article may not be copied, reprinted, published or reproduced without prior written permission.